$kenario INVE$ Schroder 90+ dan BNPP Ekuitas 1 Juta per bulan s/d Oktober 2011

dari 3 tabel bisa dibuat kesimpulan sederhana: 1. secara %potential gain skenario inves 1 Jt/bln pada Schroder 90+ lebe unggul daripada BNP Paribas Ekuitas s/d 13 Oktober 2011 2. secara %potential gain skenario inves 1 Jt/bln pada S90+ lebe unggul daripada kenaikan NAB s/d 13 Oktober (yaitu selisih NAB terhadap per tgl 3 Januari 2011) 3. secara %potential gain skenario inves 1 Jt/bln pada BNP Paribas Ekuitas lebe kecil daripada kenaikan NAB s/d 13 Oktober 2011 (yaitu selisih NAB terhadap per tgl 07 Januari 2011) 4. pada tabel ke 3, simak ada kolom yang diberi warna BIRU: ada perbedaan modal yang dipakai, yaitu menjadi Rp. 5 Jt, dengan tujuan

MENGUNGKIT IMBAL HASIL

pada saat NAB per unit MEROSOT TAJAM, sehingga pada akhir masa pengamatan, yaitu 13 Oktober 2011, %potential gain MALAH POSITIF, dan JAUH LEBE TINGGI daripada %kenaikan NAB ... well, semua keputusan mengikuti skenario di atas UP2U lah :)

MAKRO dan investasi portofolio ... 121011

[JAKARTA] Kepala Badan Kebijakan dan Penanaman Modal (BKPM) Gita Wirjawan berkeyakinan bahwa pasar makro Indonesia lebih “seksi” ketimbang pasar makro di negara-negara Eropa dan Amerika Serikat (AS). “Gonjang-ganjing ekonomi di negara maju apalagi menjelang pemilu AS akhir tahun depan, membuat perilaku pasar mengambil tindakan redeem, termasuk Indonesia. Namun, saya berkeyakinan pasar makro Indonesia lebih seksi dibanding Eropa dan AS,” ujarnya dalam Economic Outlook 2012 di Jakarta, Rabu (12/10).

... REDEMPTION? no way lah ... gw malah sempat SUBSCRIPTION nambah UNIT reksa dana saham kale :)

Rasio utang Indonesia terhadap PDB pun yang pada tahun 2004 sebesar 25-26%, pada 10 tahun 2014 mendatang diharapkan bisa ada dibawah 20%. Sementara, laju inflasi diyakininya juga akan lebih terkendali dibandingkan negara lainnya. Tambah Gita, keputusan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) yang menurunkan suku bunga BI Rate sebesar 25 basis poin dari 6,75% menjadi 6,5% Rabu pekan lalu, merupakan kebijakan yang sejalan dengan keyakinan kapasitas untuk mengelola laju inflasi. Adapun, dari 22 bulan, BI hanya meningkatkan satu kali BI Rate, beda dengan Thailand, Vietnam, dan India yang sudah berkali-kali menaikkan suku bunganya. Lebih lanjut, Gita pun mengatakan, Indonesia ternyata bisa mempertahankan potensi fiskal dan moneternya. Apalagi didukung oleh demografinya di mana banyak yang berumur dibawah 33 tahun dan bahkan 50% dari penduduknya berusia di bawah 20 tahun alias masuk kategori produktif. “Profil demografinya Indonesia sampai 2025 seperti itu dan ini modal yang luar biasa. Sehingga, ke depannya, kekuatan Indonesia, bukan hanya pada fiskal moneter tapi juga demografinya,” imbuh dia. http://www.suarapembaruan.com/ekonomidanbisnis/pasar-makro-indonesia-lebih-seksi-ketimbang-as-dan-eropa/12336 Sumber : SUARAPEMBARUAN.COM

A$13N-k mah egois lah :P ... 061011

Penarikan dana yang dilakukan investor asing di lantai Bursa Efek Indonesia beberapa waktu lalu disinyalir untuk mengamankan posisi negara asalnya baik Amerika Serikat maupun wilayah Eropa lantaran krisis utang. "Memang beberapa hari lalu terjadi net selling karena asing membutuhkan dana untuk mengamankan posisi mereka yang lagi krisis," ujar Ketua Bapepam-LK, Nurhaida di sela acara Investor Summit di Jakarta, Kamis (6/10). Menurutnya penarikan dana terus menerus ini sempat membuat Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) terkoreksi, walau kembali menguat tertolong fundamental Indonesia yang masih kuat. Penurunan indeks ini juga dipicu lantara sebagian besar hampir 51% investor asing mendomisasi di lantai bursa. "Kepemilikan asing di saham 57% sedangkan lokal hanya 43%. Artinya, mari kita genjot investor domestik ini," imbuhnya. Bila asing, lanjutnya masih mendominasi pasar disertai dengan kondisi negara asalnya yang tengah koreksi membuat asing harus menjual kepemilikannya dalam jumlah besar di tempat-tempat portofolionya. Pada kesempatan yang sama, Kepala BPKM Gita Wiryawan menambahkan distorsi pasar yang tengah terjadi di lantai bursa disebabkan penarikan dana secara besar oleh asing, terlihat banyaknya investor asing yang membeli saham dan surat utang negara (SUN) dibandingkan oleh domestik. " Pada tanggal 12 September 2011 di mana BNP Paribas mengeluarkan pernyataan harus mencari kebutuhan mereka serta 13 September 2011 mereka mengambil posisi untuk mengcover dirinya sendiri, sehingga kondisi ini begitu," urai Gita hari ini. Namun, ia mengakui kondisi fundamental pasar modal dan pasar keuangan Indonesia masih kuat ditunjuk oleh penguatan Rupiah dibandingkan dengan dolar Singapura walau terjadi pelemahan atas dolar. "Indonesia masih memiliki fundamental yang sangat luar biasa. Yakin angin topan dan puyuh ini berlalu sehingga mereka [asing] bisa lihat betapa indahnya Indonesia untuk investasi," tuntasnya. http://www.imq21.com/news/read/42925/20111006/113529/Bapepam-LK-Asing-Tarik-Dana-di-Bursa-Amankan-Negaranya.html Sumber : IMQ JAKARTA

bulan PEMBALIKAN ARAH, semogA

Why U.S. stock funds could see year-end rally Debt woes plague economy and markets, but fourth quarter is often strong By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — This was supposed to be another fruitful year for U.S. stocks. So far, not so good. Now, after enduring a summer-long market drought and geopolitical wildfires, investors in equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds aren’t expecting much of an annual harvest, but they shouldn’t rule out a year-end rally. Debt troubles from Athens to Washington preoccupied investors throughout the third quarter and gave U.S. stock funds their worst drubbing since the financial-market meltdown three years ago. Sporadic rallies provided a brief lift but only masked an overall pessimistic trend for stocks and stockholders alike. The biggest weight on stock investors has been the European debt crisis. Europe’s financial meisters and ministers, with an assist from the U.S., are trying to orchestrate an “orderly” default for Greece. Their overarching goal: protect big European and U.S. banks from a knockout punch that could trigger another worldwide recession — that is, unless a recession is already here. “What is a bad economy is about to get much worse,” said Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which at the end of September said the U.S. would be hit with another recession that would not spare other developed nations and emerging markets. “We are seeing the weakness spread widely,” Achuthan said. “There’s a contagion…that’s not going to be snuffed out. The nature of a recession is not a statistic. It’s a vicious feedback loop. Sales fall, production falls, income falls and that depresses sales. We’re in that and it’s going to run its course.” Read more: Economy faces new recession. That cycle may take awhile, given the massive levels of debt that governments, corporations and households around the developed world are being forced to whittle down. Against that backdrop, stock-market recoveries will be more fragile and easily derailed, recessions more frequent, and heightened volatility the rule rather than the exception. Stock investing therefore will need to become more nimble and proactive, a far cry from the “set-it-and-forget-it,” buy-and-hold mantra that most individual investors who came of age in the past 30 years have been taught.

UDA GA JAMANNYA, BELI dan BOBO @reksa dana dan saham; INVESTASI reksa dana dan saham SEMAKIN BERISIKO TINGGI SEKALE bo :P

“The next decade will likely be one where buy and hold will generally be a fairly poor option in developed markets,” Deutsche Bank analysts told clients in a report last month. “There will be large cyclical rallies punctuated by recessions and funding crises. “We need at least a decade to make the adjustments in both asset prices and debt levels to return the normal rhythm of long-term returns,” the report noted. “Until then, expect a highly unstable, volatile and ultimately ‘Grey’ decade.” Read more: 5 money moves one debt-crisis expert is making now. Fourth and goal Still, at the moment the U.S. arguably is the cleanest dirty shirt in the world’s hamper, as the resurgent U.S. dollar attests. So some analysts are looking for U.S. stocks to finish the year on an upbeat note, at least compared with less-resilient areas of the world. “The United States remains in somewhat better shape than Europe,” equity-market analysts at BlackRock Inc. noted in a late September research report. “On balance, we believe the economy will continue to ‘muddle through’ at a weak but still positive rate.” Stock buyers should look for opportunities in technology, energy and other cyclical market sectors, BlackRock strategists said. They also favor health care, a sector whose constituents historically have exhibited strong pricing power in weak economic conditions. The analysts added: “Companies that have the ability to raise dividends, buy back stock and make new investments are well-positioned.” In that sense, stock funds and ETFs with shares of high-quality, cash-rich U.S. companies in their portfolio would be better able to weather headwinds. Also working in stock funds’ favor is that fourth-quarter returns have been solidly positive on average for the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and its sectors since 1990, when S&P began keeping sector records. (So has the second quarter, just not as strongly.)

that fourth-quarter returns have been solidly positive on average for the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and its sectors since 1990, when S&P began keeping sector records

Over these past two decades, consumer discretionary, consumer staples and technology stocks have been the largest outperformers in the final three months of the year, topping the index’s 4.7% average gain for the period, according to S&P. Health care, industrials, materials and telecom also have tended toward above-market returns, while energy, financials and utilities finished below-average, but still in positive territory. ECRI Weekly Leading Index is weak. While U.S. stock traders obviously prefer to close the annual books on a high note, in more recent years the fourth quarter has disappointed — 2008, for example. And even if the next three months do bring a respite for stock-fund shareholders, the relief may be short-lived. “Don’t begin to think that green arrows will signal a change of long-term market direction,” cautioned Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ. “We still believe equities will again trend lower after the traditional year-end rally.” Rotten to the quarter Market players never like uncertainty, but they absolutely loathed the confusion and lack of confidence on display in the third quarter. The period’s large number of highly volatile trading days reflected this anxiety. So did the quarter’s closing numbers. U.S. diversified stock funds tumbled more than 15% on average in the period, according to preliminary data from investment researcher Morningstar Inc. The broad U.S. market benchmarks also fared poorly: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) lost 12.1% over the 13 weeks through Sept. 30, its worst showing since the the first quarter of 2009, while the S&P 500 (SNC:SPX) was hit with a 13.9% quarterly loss, including reinvested dividends — its biggest drop since the December 2008 quarter. Every domestic stock fund category Morningstar follows lost ground. Reflecting the depth of the market rout and the surge of investor pessimism, even defensive fund sectors including consumer staples and utilities failed to finish in the black. How to use options, ETFs and sector plays to get through Wall Street's most notorious month without seeing red. International stock funds suffered even worse, with emerging markets investors getting a first-hand reminder of these countries’ inherent risk. Read more: Case for international stock funds gets tougher. The stiff U.S. market losses since the end of June also erased investors’ hard-earned gains for the year. Domestic stock funds were down 10% over the first nine months of 2011 — only the utilities sector, with rich dividends to provide support, has managed to stay above water. Health-care and consumer-staples funds and ETFs, which typically play defense, got tackled. The average health-care fund sank 14%, according to Morningstar; a representative ETF, Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NAR:XLV) , fell 10%. Actively run consumer-staples funds, meanwhile, gave up 9%; but an index-tracking ETF proxy for the group did considerably better: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NAR:XLP) lost just over 4%. Gold and precious-metals funds also gave back ground, shaking shareholders who had enjoyed only an upward direction. Precious-metals funds dropped 6%, energy funds lost 22%, natural-resources funds shed 24% and financial-services sector portfolios lost 22%. Technology funds, meanwhile, lost 16%. The biggest U.S.-stock mutual funds reflected the market’s unforgiving mood. American Funds Growth Fund of America (MFD:AGTHX) lost about 16%, according to fund tracker Lipper Inc. Meanwhile, Fidelity Contrafund (MFD:FCNTX) did notably better, down 11.6%, Vanguard 500 Index Fund (MFD:VFINX) fell 13.9%, and Dodge & Cox Stock Fund (MFD:DODGX) tumbled almost 19%. So-called bear-market funds, which are designed to rise when stocks fall, did their job and posted a 15% average gain. “The market is looking for a bottom and is volatile, and it will remain so,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. “Right now you’re better off on the side of caution. That’s why you see cash quite high among professional investors.” Keeping the powder dry Indeed, for many potential buyers nowadays it pays not to play. Investors have been raising cash in an attempt to keep powder dry, and this summer the already jammed sidelines became even more crowded. More than $71 billion fled U.S. stock funds in the quarter through Sept. 21, with an exodus of $23 billion in the week of Aug. 10 alone, according to the Investment Company Institute, an industry trade group. About three times as much money poured out of domestic funds in the third quarter as in the previous quarter. When money did go into stocks over the quarter, it was most often through hybrid or balanced funds that also invest in bonds. For others, pure bond funds were the only good option. As has been the case all year, long-term government bond funds proved especially lucrative. Read more: Why government bond funds surged in the third quarter. “It’s going to be a couple of years before investors are net buyers of equity funds,” said Bob Carey, chief investment officer at First Trust Advisors L.P. “Investors want cash flow.” Investors’ laser-like focus on stock dividends and bond income will dissipate once the market emerges from its slump, Carey added. “It’s not that different from the mid-1990s as we were coming out of the 1990-91 recession,” he pointed out. “Five years later everything with a dividend was considered passé.” ... well, SEKALE LAGE, sebagai perbandingan, di INDONESIA pun, SAHAM MENCETAK GAIN lage pada NOVEMBER s/d DESEMBER, dengan catatan: desember BULAN LIBURAN, jadi kenaekan akan TERBATAS:

jadi seperti yang gw selalu koar-koarkan, SEBAEKNYA ELO JANGAN KETINGGALAN KERETA, saat INVESTOR REKSA DANA SAHAM HARI-HARI INI MALAH MENGKOLEKSI unit2 tambahan secara terus menerus dan rutin, maka kemudian pada 2 bulan PEMBALIKAN ARAH ITU, mereka akan JUAL UNTUK MENIKMATI LIBURAN PANJANG :)

PENIPUAN ITU ABADI ... 031011

... well, gw SEDIH dan SEDIH banget baca soal2 KETIDAKINTEGRITASAN pengelola INVESTASI ala reksa dana kpd ... itu sebabnya gw MENGHINDARKAN DIRI dari tawaran reksa dana kpd atau YANG TIDAK BEREPUTASI sama sekali ... susahnya PENIPUAN ITU ABADI, jadi KEWASPADAAN ITU JUGA HARUS TERUS MENERUS DIASAH ... capek dong ... well, gw berusaha BUKAN UNTUK MEWASPADAI PENIPUAN, tapi LEBE KEPADA KESIAPAN gw MENGHADAPI RISIKO PENIPUAN, yaitu lewat DIVERSIFIKASI ... memang semakin diversifikasi, gw semakin pusinK karena terbagi-baginya pemikiran dan pekerjaan gw ... tapi ITU JAUH LEBE EFEKTIF dalam MENGHADANG dan MENGHADAPI yang ABADI model PENIPUAN ITU ... well, diversifikasi bisa bersifat TERABA (tangible) dan TAK TERINDERA (intangible): emas, properti, deposito, tabungan, reksa dana, saham, misalnya ... JADI prinsip JANGAN TARUH SEMUA TELUR dalam SATU KERANJANG itu KUNCI KESELAMATAN dalam BERINVESTASI dan MENGHADAPI PENIPUAN yang abadi itu ... satu hal lage yang saat ini PALING SULIT DIHINDARI OLEH MANUSIA abad 21 ini adalah KESERAKAHAN ... semakin serakah PASTI SEMAKIN MUDAH MENJADI KORBAN PENIPUAN, kalo ga percaya, coba aja sendiri lah :P

penipuan LAGE tukh ... 031011

Falcon Diduga Gelapkan Dana Nasabah Rp57 Miliar Rizka Diputra - Okezone Minggu, 2 Oktober 2011 16:31 wib JAKARTA - Direktur Investasi Dana Pensiun Mitra Krakatau (DPMK) Erli John mengaku menjadi salah satu korban kejahatan yang diduga dilakukan manajemen PT Falcon Asia Resources Management (Falcon). Dia merugi lantaran dananya sebesar Rp4,1 miliar tak bisa kembali setelah ditanamkan di reksa dana terbitan Falcon. "Kita pernah investasi Rp4,1 miliar dana milik Dana Pensiun Mitra Krakatau. Tapi kita tak pernah membuat laporan ke Polisi. Kalau yang buat laporan itu pihak CIMB Niaga," kata Erli dalam keterangannya di Jakarta, Minggu (2/10/2011). Berdasarkan informasi yang dihimpun, selain DPMK masih terdapat enam perusahaan termasuk investor individu yang menanamkan uangnya di reksa dana terbitan Falcon tersebut. Total dana nasabah yang diduga digelapkan mencapai Rp57 miliar. Sebelumnya, salah satu pemegang reksa dana, PT Asuransi Umum Bumiputera Muda 1967 (Bumida) tidak bisa mencairkan dananya sekira Rp11 miliar. Kasus tersebut kini masih ditangani oleh Direktorat Pidana Umum Bareskrim Mabes Polri. Berdasarkan nomor laporan bernomor LP/223/IV/2011, tertanggal 8 April 2011, tercantum bahwa tindak kejahatan itu diduga dilakukan oleh Direktur Falcon Bernardo Ali dan Direktur Falcon Asia (FA) Hendro Christanto. Modus operandi yang digunakan dalam penggelapan dana, yakni dengan memalsukan tanda tangan nasabah dalam formulir redemption dana investasi yang disimpan di bank kustodian PT CIMB Niaga Tbk. Pelaku pemalsuan tandatangan diduga dilakukan oleh kakak kandung Hendro Christanto, Jodi Haryanto selaku pihak yang diberikan kuasa atas kedua perusahaan tersebut. Sekadar informasi, Jodi Haryanto adalah terpidana tiga tahun penjara dalam perkara pemalsuan tandatangan di PT Eurocapital Peregrine Securities (EPS). Meski putusan banding dan perintah penahanan itu telah dilakukan, namun hingga kini mantan wakil bendahara umum Partai Demokrat ini tak kunjung ditahan. Falcon sendiri awalnya bernama Asia Wealth Investment Management yakni sebuah perusahaan pengelola reksa dana yang sesungguhnya dikendalikan oleh Jodi Haryanto. Mayoritas saham perusahaan dengan kode FAR02 ini dipegang oleh PT Karyatech Prima milik Eriana yang merupakan istri Jodi Haryanto. (ade)

kasus KPD berlanjUt ... 031011

Jumat, 30/09/2011 17:05 WIB Polisi Sita 3 Apartemen Senilai Rp 15 Miliar Terkait Kasus Askrindo E Mei Amelia R - detikFinance Jakarta - Penyidik Direktorat Reserse Kriminal Khusus Polda Metro Jaya kembali melakukan penyitaan terkait kasus money laundering atas dana PT Askrindo. Kali ini, ada tiga unit apartemen senilai Rp 15 miliar yang disita polisi. "Ada tiga unit apartemen di kawasan Jakarta Selatan yang disita petugas," kata Kepala Bidang Humas Polda Metro Jaya Kombes Baharudin Djafar saat dihubungi wartawan, Jumat (30/9/2011). Baharudin mengatakan, apartemen tersebut disita dari saksi dalam kasus Askrindo. "Bukan dari tersangka," kata Baharudin. Selain menyita tiga unit apartemen, polisi juga menyita barang bukti lain. Di antaranya adalah dokumen perjanjian kontrak Askrindo dengan tiga perusahaan investasi yang diinisialkan, yaitu PT HAM, PT RAM dan PT JS. "Kemudian ada satu unit handphone juga," katanya. Polisi juga menyita 3 bundel perjanjian perikatan jual-beli dan 2 lembar bilyet deposito senilai total Rp 500 juta. "Masing-masing Rp 250 juta," ucapnya. Sementara itu, Kasubdit Tindak Pidana Korupsi (Tipikor) Polda Metro Jaya AKBP Aji Indra mengungkapkan, apartemen tersebut disita dari seorang saksi berinisial Ben. "Saksi ini tidak ada kaitannya dengan kasus, hanya dititipi," kata Aji. Sebelumnya, Polda Metro Jaya telah menetapkan tersangka dalam kasus tersebut yakni ZL dan RS selaku pejabat di PT Askrindo. Dua tersangka ini ditengarai telah bekerjasama dengan sejumlah manajer investasi untuk menyalurkan dana Askrindo ke perusahaan investasi tersebut. Berdasarkan laporan polisi 6 Juni 2011, No 491, Askrindo diduga melakukan tipikor pencucian uang seperti pada Pasal 2 ayat (1) dan 3 UU No 20/2001 tentang perubahan UU No 31 pemberantasan TP Korupsi dengan jalan membuat rekayasa keuangan dengan kerjasama dengan MI. Polisi juga telah memeriksa 37 saksi dan beberapa saksi ahli, dari pihak BPKP, saksi ahli pidana, saksi ahli tindak pidana pencucian uang dan saksi ahli Bapepam dan ahli investasi. Sementara polisi sendiri telah memblokir 24 rekening dalam kasus itu. Askrindo diduga melakukan rekayasa keuangan yang dilakukan melalui kerjasama dengan 4 manajer investasi ada penyaluran dana sebesar Rp 439 miliar di 10 perusahaan investasi. Menurutnya, kasus ini terjadi pada rentang waktu 2004-2009. (mei/ang)