gW suka BANGET ketidakPASTIan

gW suka BANGET ketidakPASTIan

Kamis, 19 Maret 2015

ketidakpastian dan kepastian ITU NYAWA REKSA DANA ...dah : 270310 / 311214/190315 (SUKU BUNGA FED FUND)

http://ekonomitakserius.wordpress.com/2008/11/30/sempurna-what-crisis-3/


baca posting gw di link tersebut ... ga biasanya gw bisa berani mengekspektasikan dan memprediksikan bahwa GAIN DAHSYAT bisa terjadi di REKSA DANA SAHAM gw  ... well, mungkin CUMA KEBETULAN doank, mirip seperti KATA TALEB, sang doktor statistik ahli maen obligasi dari amrik yang TENAR dengan karya tulisannya: BLACK SWAN :P
... jelas saat itu situasi KRISFINALO amat MENGGUNCANGKAN JANTUNG PARA INVESTOR, termasuk INVESTOR KELAS KAKAP LOKAL dan GLOBAL ... tapi gw SANTE MENAHAN SEMUA REKSA DANA GW dan MALAH BELI MASUK REKSA DANA SAHAM dan SEDIKIT REKSA DANA PENDAPATAN TETAP serta PASAR UANG ... malah dalam 2 bulan setelah Oktober 2008 gw berhasil MEREDEEM  puluhan juta rupiah untuk JALAN2 BARENG keluarga di oz :)  ... tampaknya jalan2 lagi di musim dingin oz tahun ini, gw bakal pake hasil REDEMPTION sebagian reksa dana saham gw dah, sementara NAB aset reksa dana saham dan total gw maseh tetap NANJAK ... well, liat aja dah :)

SAAT THE FED DITUNGGU lalu THE FED MENDENGARKAN PASAR clearly

NAB reksa dana saham yang gw ikutan per tanggal 26 Maret 2010 berdasarkan infovesta.com:
Fortis Ekuitas: 11015,26 GAIN (TERHADAP NAB per 28 Oktober 2008): +211,57%
Manulife Dana Saham: 7605,11 GAIN : +177,02%
Manulife Saham Andalan: 1227,07 GAIN: +213,21%
Phinisi Dana Saham: 13622,63 GAIN: +184,71%
PNM ekuitas syariah: 1420,71 GAIN: +164,35%
Schroder Dana Istimewa: 3699,66 GAIN: +181,06%
Schroder Dana Prestasi Plus: 16879,47 GAIN: +182,23%

ps. fortis ekuitas gw masuk sejak 2005, dengan NAB: 3454,97 berarti GAIN mutakhir= 218,82% ... nah beneran ocehan gw pada beberapa orang dan teman: KRISIS ITU JALAN PINTAS MENUJU KEBERHASILAN TINGGI dah ... seorang teman gw bilang, bukan krisis, tapi FLUKTUASI ... well doi juga benar, karena FUNDAMENTAL DASAR DARI SEGALA DASAR keberhasilan sebuah investasi apa pun adalah FLUKTUASI ANTARA HARGA BELI dan JUAL ... investor seni beli lukisan di harga 1 juta dolar, lalu jual lagi di harga 500.000 dolar karena KRISMON ... itu namanya rugi khan (ini contoh kehidupan sehari-hari yang benar-benar terjadi lho) ... well, gw berusaha sedapat mungkin TIDAK MAEN CUT LOSSES di reksa dana, dan maseh berhasil tukh ... tapi coba perhatikan daftar gw di atas yaitu GAIN pada semua reksa dana saham yang gw punya ... juga perhatikan juga imbal hasil fortis ekuitas sejak pertama kali gw masuk dan PADA SAAT KRISFINALO :)
ps lagi :
coba baca KOMENTAR OMBEN: http://investasireksadanaindonesia09.blogspot.com/2009/05/gain-nab-sdpp-6-bulan-sejak-bottom.html?showComment=1242119577562#comment-c7489923474171509133
dan baca JAWABAN GW juga ... dan liat hasil nya sbb:
pada saat gw posting tersebut, yaitu per tgl. 05 Mei 2009, imbal hasil SDPP sudah mencapai 70%
lalu saat gw sekarang tulis posting ini, 26 Maret 2010, imbal hasil SDPP: 182% terhadap 28 Oktober 2008
jadi ada selisih GAIN: DI ATAS 100%, padahal gw cuma memprediksikan 40-70% itu pun dengan KERAGUAN karena situasi KRISFINALO maseh ANGET ABIS, belum ada LEDAKAN DI PANSUS CENTURY yang MENGABAIKAN SAMA SEKALI KRISFINALO karena alasan politis
ggggggggggggggggHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
JAKARTA kontan. Industri reksadana tahun ini tumbuh subur. Otoritas Jasa Keuangan mencatat, dana kelolaan reksadana per Rabu (24/12) lalu menyentuh Rp 266,22 triliun. Jumlah ini naik 21,49% ketimbang posisi awal tahun atau year to date (ytd) senilai Rp 219,12 triliun.
Nurhaida, Kepala Eksekutif Pengawas Pasar Modal OJK, menyatakan, pertumbuhan dana kelolaan reksadana ditopang meningkatnya kepercayaan investor terhadap industri reksadana. Hal ini tecermin dari kenaikan jumlah unit penyertaan sebesar 18,7% (ytd) menjadi 143,20 miliar unit pada 24 Desember 2014. "Kondisi ini menandakan, investor lebih banyak subscription daripada redemption," kata Nurhaida, Selasa (30/12). OJK mencatat, total net subscription mencapai Rp 29,42 triliun di periode yang sama.
Selain itu, kenaikan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan membaiknya perekonomian tahun ini berefek positif ke kinerja reksadana. Secara ytd hingga kemarin (30/12), IHSG melesat 22,29% menjadi 5.226,95.
Kinerja IHSG tertinggi keempat di kawasan Asia. Return IHSG di bawah indeks bursa Shanghai yang mencatat pertumbuhan tertinggi, yakni 49,07%, diikuti indeks bursa India (BSE) dengan return 28,82%, dan bursa Filipina dengan return 24,02%.
Nurhaida mengklaim, edukasi otoritas dan para pelaku pasar turut mendongkrak dana kelolaan reksadana. "Edukasi berpengaruh besar kepada investor dalam memahami produk reksadana dan risikonya," tutur dia.
Nurahman, Deputi Eksekutif Pasar Modal II OJK, mengatakan, kenaikan dana kelolaan juga didukung sejumlah peraturan yang diterbitkan otoritas. "Juga ditopang pengawasan OJK," klaim dia.
Head of Operation and Business Development Panin Asset Management Rudiyanto mengatakan, moncernya pasar modal justru memicu aksi ambil untung oleh para investor, termasuk di tempatnya meniti karier. Dana kelolaan reksadana Panin Panin Asset Management hanya naik tipis dari akhir 2013 sekitar Rp 11,4 triliun menjadi Rp 11,5 triliun di akhir November 2014. Ini merupakan total dana kelolaan reksadana di luar kontrak pengelolaan dana (KPD). "Investor merealisasikan keuntungan, terutama investor institusi," ungkap Rudiyanto. Mayoritas redemption terjadi di reksadana saham.
Tahun depan, Panin Asset Management menargetkan total dana kelolaan Rp 16 triliun-Rp 17 triliun. Caranya,  memaksimalkan program yang saat ini sudah ada, seperti autodebit, program smart investment protection plan (SIPP) atau reksadana berbundel asuransi serta edukasi ke sejumlah daerah.
Editor: Sandy Baskoro


Suka Risiko Rendah, Bisa Lirik Reksa Dana
Oleh: Tio Sukanto
Ekonomi - Senin, 3 Juni 2013 | 18:59 WIB


INILAH.COM, Jakarta - Bagi pekerja usia produktif, antara 25-55 tahun ada baiknya menyisihkan 75% pendapatan ke produk reksa dana, jika memiliki pendapatan yang lebih.

Secara reguler investasi tersebut masuk ke portofolio diversifikasi. Tentunya memiliki risiko lebih rendah dibanding saham atau investasi lainnya. Apalagi di saat kondisi pasar saham yang tidak menentu. Bisa jadi, jawaban paling realistis adalah reksa dana.

"Untuk usia produktif, sebaiknya investasi di reksa dana. Karena memiliki risiko yang lebih rendah dibanding masuk ke saham, karena risiko jelas tinggi," ujar Vice President Head of Investment PT CIMB Principal Asset Management, Fadlul Imansyah kepada INILAH.COM di Jakarta, Senin (3/5/2013).

Di usia produktif tersebut setidaknya pekerja memilliki 30 tahun ke depan untuk beraktivitas yang produktif. Namun, ketika usia sudah menginjak 50 tahun, ada baiknya porsi investasi dikurangi besaranya, yaitu menjadi 25%. "Jika usia sudah 50 tahun ke atas, 75 persen adalah income, sementara investasi hanya boleh 25 persen," ujar Fadlul.

Sementara jika usianya sudah mencapai 55 tahun, lanjut Fadlul maka investasi yang harus diambil adalah pasar uang. "Mengingat market sedang koreksi, karakter investor memiliki peluang 50-50 persen. Tapi peluang di reksadana tetap yang terbesar," kata Fadlul.

Bagi investor yang memiliki horison investasi jangka panjang, dan ingin masuk secara bertahap pada reksa dana saham. Alasannya, kondisi tingkat daya beli dalam negeri yang masih tinggi. Target tingkat pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto 6,5% pada 2013 dan inflasi yag masih terjaga di posisi 5,90% per Maret 2013. Untuk itu, sektor konsumer masih menjadi investasi yang menarik.

Sementara, Dirut PT Schroder Invesment Management Indonesia, Michael Tjohjadi mengatakan prospek investasi saham di tahun 2013 masih ada ruang untuk tumbuh. Saham sektor infrastruktur, properti dan barang konsumsi masih menjadi penopang utama penguatan Indeks Harga Gabungan Saham (IHSG). [hid]

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmNNNNNNNNNNmmmmm

Book of the Week: Antifragile

True public intellectuals are a rare breed. The talking heads that regularly command millions of eyeballs on 24-hour news channels may have the capacity to make nuanced arguments and use complex reasoning, but their chosen venue seems to actively discourage both activities. Meanwhile, those with thoughts that do not break down into easily digestible sound bites often struggle to give their ideas enough pizzazz to interest anyone outside the ivy-covered walls of a university campus.

By contrast, Nassim Nicholas Taleb makes a convincing 21st-century public intellectual. Not that Taleb would embrace such an identity; he prefers the term skeptical empiricist. Still, the Lebanese-born writer has all the tools to get his ideas into wide circulation. He is erudite, humorous, iconoclastic and fierce in the defense of his beliefs. At the same time, he is not afraid to challenge his audience with difficult concepts, possibly because his pedigree as a former Wall Street quant and derivatives trader gives him the kind of credentials that make people want to listen.

But while Taleb often draws on his experience in finance to get his points across, his books are about much more than banking and trading. His latest effort, “Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder,” is no exception. In the book, Taleb claims that many things actually benefit from stress, volatility and a healthy dose of disarray. He uses a metaphor from human physiology to make his point, noting that people who stress their muscles to the breaking point get stronger precisely because of the stress. He deems things that react this way as anti-fragile, and he delights in how anti-fragility can allow people to thrive in a world where random and unpredictable stressors lurk around every corner. The trick, he claims, is not to avoid random shocks, but rather to create a system that actually improves by experiencing such unexpected jolts.

Starting from this premise, Taleb is off to the races, not only sharing copious examples of things that benefit from a healthy dose of trauma, but also offering harsh critiques of the people and institutions that fight to smooth life’s many wrinkles. Taleb certainly has enough scorn to go around, but he is especially tough on strategic planners, social engineers and institutions such as the Federal Reserve that “attempt to suck randomness out of life.”

Perhaps the greatest irony in “Antifragile” is that Taleb is striking at the foundations of contemporary intellectualism. So much modern brainpower is dedicated to formulating a theoretical framework to make predictions about the future, but the author claims the thought and research that go into making these predictions is largely wasted effort. Instead, he firmly believes in the maxim that the best-laid plans often go awry, and we should be positioning ourselves to benefit from the random events that so often ruin our plans. In short, Taleb calls for less theorizing and more empiricizing, making him one of the most intriguing anti-intellectual public intellectuals around.
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder Hardcover by ---Taleb, Nassim Nicholas --- --- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of "The Black Swan" and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world. Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. In "The Black Swan, "Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In "Antifragile, " Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call "efficient" not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the "Titanic" save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear. "Antifragile" is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it. Praise for "Antifragile" "Taleb takes on everything from the mistakes of modern architecture to the dangers of meddlesome doctors and how overrated formal education is. . . . An ambitious and thought-provoking read . . . highly entertaining."--"The Economist" Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an essayist principally concerned with the problems of uncertainty and knowledge. Taleb's interests lie at the intersection of philosophy, mathematics, finance, literature, and cognitive science but he has stayed extremely close the ground thanks to an uninterrupted two-decade career as a mathematical trader. Specializing in the risks of unpredicted rare events (black swans"), he held senior trading positions in New York and London before founding Empirica LLC, a trading firm and risk research laboratory. Taleb is a fellow at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Science. Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – digested read John Crace reduces the latest gamechanger from the 21st-century Confucius to a manageable 600 words Share 83 inShare 1 Email John Crace The Guardian, Sunday 2 December 2012 17.00 GMT Jump to comments (16) Cleverer than Einstein … Taleb. Photograph: Illustration by Matt Blease. Click to enlarge. Wind extinguishes a candle and energises fire. How deep is that? The answer, counter-intuitively, is not quite as deep as me. For I, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, alone have discovered the secret of the universe. It is the antifragile. Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb guardian "What in God's name is that?" Wittgenstein asked me over lunch in a three-starred Michelin restaurant in Paris. Let me explain. You know how some things are quite fragile, and we're really scared of them breaking? Well, my brilliant new idea is that sometimes it's good that things get broken, because that's when important changes like evolution can happen. And because I'm the only person who has ever thought this, I'm going to call it antifragile. "I know you are the cleverest man who ever lived," Einstein told me over cocktails in my private jet, "but I'm not sure I'm quite getting this." Think of it like this. In an earlier work of staggering brilliance, I invented the idea of vanishingly rare Black Swan events that skewed our understanding of probability. Well, now I've proved it, as the publishers have assumed that because I got lucky with some bullshit once then I'm bound to do the same again with the next book. The easiest way to understand the concept is this. Think of the fragile as a book for which I've written the antibook. A work of massive consequence for the universe that is so self-important it will go unread by everyone. Forget everything you ever learned from Harvard drones and Nobel laureates, for in them lies no salvation. They think only in the sort of teleological heuristic iatrogenics that would appeal to a Seneca or a Nero. The world is really composed of Triads: the Fragile, the Robust and the Antifragile. Now abideth these three. And the greatest of these is the Antifragile. Don't just take it from me. Look at this bar chart that shows how everyone else is very stupid, and I am right about everything. Case proved. A week or so ago, I was bench-pressing 250kg in the luxury gym in the basement of my Manhattan condo, when I was interrupted by Nelson Mandela who wanted to know why I kept repeating the triadic dualistic mantra of fragile and antifragile. "Dats simpul," I replied, using the voice of Fat Tony from Brooklyn, a character I created who never fails to make me laugh out loud. Though he may not have the same effect on you. "Becoz I've nuttin more to say and 400 pages to say it." Let me put it another way. When I interrupted the World Economic Forum in Davos to expose the central fallacies of non-optionality in the markets, I was shouted down by everyone except Buddha. But it is now clear to me that I have been proved entirely right on absolutely everything except those things that I may have got wrong. And that uncertainty over which is which goes to the very essence of the antifragile. But where's your evidence, you might tediously ask? If so, you wouldn't be the first as I had this out with Plato over a glass of the finest retsina to be found in the Peloponnese. As long as you stay stuck in the mindless pursuit of empirical cause and effect, you will be lost in the darkness. The key to enlightenment is the simple convex transformation that the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. I will say that again in case you missed it. The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Recall that we once had no word for the colour blue. So we had no word for complete tosser. Until now. The apophatic should always take the via negativa and assume that every doctor is trying to kill you unless you happen to get better. "How then," Confucius asked me when I was staying in the Forbidden City, "am I supposed to be able to tell which changes are antifragile and which are not?" Let go of your doxastic epistemes, grasshopper. The answers lie within.
















.. h-45: 45 hari jelang penutupan akhir taon @ BEI 2014 ... secara kasar rerata kenaekan ihsg= +4.35 per hari bursa
... sisa 45 hari = 45 X 4.35= 196 ... per tgl 27 Oktober 2014 @ 5024.29, pada akhir taon = 5024.29 + 196 = 5220.32 ... jadi, menurut itung2an kasar, ihsg GAGAL MENCAPAI 5300, apalagi 5500, 5750 ... well, semoga 5220 uda cukup meraup LABA GEDE ya :)
CATATAN: untuk mencapai 5500, maka setiap hari secara rerata ihsg harus naek + 11 poin = 495; yaitu di akhir taon @ 5519 ... well, BERAT ya :p

PER TGL 18 Februari 2015 (pra IMLEK), data n ekspektasi s/d akhir 2015 ihsgVrdsVsaham sbb :

Tidak ada komentar: