PENJUALAN SUKUK RITEL SERI SR-004
Banyak investor tak kebagian sukuk ritel
Oleh Wahyu Satriani Ari Wulan - Selasa, 20 Maret 2012 | 06:53 WIB
kontan
Banyak investor tak kebagian sukuk ritel
JAKARTA. Masa penjualan Surat Berharga Syariah Negara (SBSN) atau sukuk ritel seri SR-004, berakhir sudah. Permintaan beli mengalir deras selama masa pemesanan, hingga nilai order yang masuk mencapai Rp 19 triliun.
Pemerintah akhirnya hanya mengambil tawaran penempatan dana di SR-004 senilai Rp 13,6 triliun. "Ini nilai penjualan tertinggi dibandingkan emisi sukuk ritel seri-seri sebelumnya," ujar Rahmat Waluyanto, Direktur Jenderal Pengelolaan Utang Kementerian Keuangan, Senin (19/3).
Pemerintah menolak seluruh permintaan kenaikan jatah penjualan (upsize) yang diajukan para agen penjual senilai Rp 5,47 triliun. Alasan pemerintah, target Rp 13,6 triliun sudah tinggi.
Pemerintah menimbang profil jatuh tempo dan potensi risiko refinancing mengingat instrumen ini hanya memiliki tenor 3,5 tahun. Likuiditas yang berlimpah di awal tahun, juga menjadi alasan pemerintah untuk tidak mengambil seluruh tawaran penempatan dana yang diterima. "Kami juga menimbang ketersediaan aset dasar untuk sukuk, jangan sampai nanti habis untuk ritel saja karena nanti masih ada lelang sukuk non ritel juga," papar Rahmat.
Total investor SR-004 ini mencapai 17.606 investor. Sebanyak 82,6% atau 14.588 investor membeli Sukri senilai di bawah Rp 100 juta hingga Rp 1 miliar (lihat infografis).
Sukartono, analis obligasi BNI Securities, menilai, keputusan pemerintah tidak menyerap seluruh penawaran yang masuk juga dipengaruhi tingkat kupon. SR-004 berkupon 6,25%, bandingkan dengan SUN seri acuan tenor tiga tahun yang imbal hasilnya di bawah 5%. "Pemerintah pasti memperhitungkan biaya dana yang harus ditanggung," ujar dia.
Incar pasar sekunder
Luluk Mahfudah, Direktur Korporasi Bank Muamalat, menuturkan, dari total komitmen penjualan Rp 100 miliar, Muamalat mengajukan upsize menjadi Rp 120 miliar sesuai dengan pesanan pembelian yang masuk dari investor. Apa daya, permintaan upsize ditolak pemerintah. "Terpaksa sisanya tidak bisa dipenuhi. Kami akan mendaftar yang pesan lebih dulu," ujar dia.
Wientoro Prasetyo, Presiden Direktur Lautandhana Securindo, mengungkapkan, jatah penjualan Lautandhana sudah tercapai sebesar Rp 200 miliar. "Target terpenuhi, kami sudah tidak menerima pemesanan lagi," ujarnya.
Melonjaknya permintaan SR-004 di pekan terakhir pemesanan, tidak lepas dari penurunan bunga penjaminan LPS menjadi 5,5%. Itu berarti, bunga deposito bank ikut luruh. Imbasnya, "Para deposan banyak yang beralih ke Sukri," ujar Wientoro.
Sukri menjadi instrumen favorit menggantikan porsi deposito. "Selain risikonya kecil, sukri bisa jadi jaminan kredit dan likuid di pasar," imbuh Luluk.
Para investor yang tidak kebagian membeli di pasar perdana, bisa memburu instrumen tersebut di pasar sekunder. Sukartono memprediksi, harga SR-004 berpotensi meningkat 1% daripada harga at par selama satu minggu pertama diperdagangkan di pasar sekunder.
Feb. 3, 2012, 1:49 a.m. EST
Major investors buying emerging-market debt
By V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Behind a blizzard of negative headlines about the developed world’s debt problems, emerging-market bonds in Asia and elsewhere are catching the eye of global investment managers looking not just for yield, but also for stability and sustainable growth.
The attention being paid to emerging markets isn’t merely appreciation for a block of countries that have worked their way out of the crises of the last 15 years — in Asia, Russia and Argentina — to lay the foundation of a solid economic edifice.
Against the backdrop of low growth and negligible yield in much of the industrialized world, heavyweight fund managers say a structural shift in favor of emerging-market debt is now underway.
“Over the next decade, we think that international bond markets will grow in popularity much as international equity markets did in the past decade,” said Michael Hasenstab, a portfolio manager and co-director at a division of Franklin Templeton Investments that manages $145 billion in fixed-income assets globally.
“While emerging debt markets may not have been very liquid or well developed in the past, foreign-exchange and bond markets have significantly deepened, and the number and type of instruments have broadened … across a wide range of countries,” he said.
For emerging markets, the opportunity from a structural shift in fund flows can potentially assume overwhelming proportions.
Nearly
$100 trillion in outstanding debt was held by
fixed-income investors around the world as of June 2011, according to the Bank of International Settlements, making bonds the heavyweight hitter among asset classes.
But more than 70% of all such public and private debt was issued, both locally and internationally, from the Group of Seven major economies — the U.S., U.K., Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada. In contrast, key emerging nations such as China and India restrict foreign investments in local bonds.
Little exposure
The total amount of debt issued by emerging market entities is minuscule compared to that from the developed economies, a fact that is well captured by global bond indexes. In the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index, the total weighting of all emerging-market bond issuers was less than 6% as of Dec. 31, 2011.
“Over the next decade, we think that international bond markets will grow in popularity much as international equity markets did in the past decade.”
-- Michael Hasenstab, Franklin Templeton
Kenneth Akintewe, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Aberdeen Asset Management, says his team speaks with investors who “even at this stage” have zero exposure to Asia fixed-income strategies, but adds that this is changing.
In addition to global investors, regional central banks could also be expected to invest in regional bonds, he said.
“The good news is the investment flows into markets like Indonesia, as well as regional markets in general, are becoming increasingly structural in nature. There has been far less participation in the market by ‘fast money’ type investors and far more participation by real money, longer-term focused investors,” he said.
Nathan Chaudoin, an investment director at HSBC Global Asset Management, said that while the return expected by individual investors would determine how they allocate their money, an ideal globally diversified fixed-income portfolio should have 8% to 15% in securities from the developing world, considering their risk and volatility characteristics.
A deterioration in the expected Sharpe ratio — a technical measure of the reward for risks taken — of the developed markets due to increased volatility calls for a greater exposure to emerging markets than in the past, he said.
Watch the risk
Part of the reason for the low exposure of international money managers is that many bond investors put a premium of safety over return. As a result, they have a greater bias toward debt of their home countries rather than securities issued by other countries, at least when compared with investors of other major asset classes.
Investors also prefer developed bond markets over those in emerging markets because of the abundant liquidity and depth provided by their home markets.
The home-bias is felt during periods of stress in global markets, through an appreciation of so-called hard currencies such as the U.S. dollar (NYE:DXY) and the Japanese yen (ICAPC:USDJPY) , as well as an increase in prices of Treasurys and German bunds, as investors rush home.
David Falkof, a mutual-funds analyst at Morningstar Inc., said that despite having “essentially stronger fundamentals” than the developed world, the risks associated with such behavior and an appreciation of the dollar sometimes outweigh the entire income offered by higher yields on emerging-market debt.
Still, with yields on benchmark 10-year government bonds of several developed nations near historic lows, investors are taking a deeper look at emerging markets.
Guillermo Osses, managing director and head of emerging market debt at HSBC Global Asset Management, said that in addition to lower debt levels and stronger current-account balances, many emerging nations have also accumulated vast foreign-exchange reserves, essentially making them “creditors to the rest of the world.”
HSBC’s debt funds, which plan to overweight emerging-market currencies and credit spreads in 2012, raised more than $1 billion in 2011 from institutional investors seeking the additional yield, as well as stability, said Osses, adding that the euro-zone crisis is providing the impetus.
“The superior credit quality that many emerging-market sovereigns have been able to achieve should provide some comfort to the investor in that, if they are able to handle volatility, returns will be realized,” said Osses.
“Given the low interest-rate environment, we continue to see investors adapt a meaningful strategic allocation to emerging-market debt, given their higher yields and political stability,” he said.
Franklin Templeton’s Hasenstab said that, unlike developed markets in the U.S., Japan and the euro-zone, emerging nations have a different set of problems to deal with: inflation against the backdrop of strong growth, though with low levels of debt and high levels of policy flexibility.
“Going forward, we believe that these dynamics form an environment in which it is quite likely that emerging-market countries will continue to need to tighten policies. As a result, we are positioned in [those] countries with strong underlying dynamics, but remain on the shorter end of the curve,” he said.
When borrowers say no
The interest in emerging-market debt can potentially provide a sizeable and alternate source of funding for governments and corporations alike. But borrowers are just as cautious as investors in some nations.
India offers an example of this: The South Asian country currently caps foreign investments at $15 billion for government bonds, $20 billion for corporate bonds and $25 billion for infrastructure bonds.
Indian government debt is currently rated at investment grade level by Fitch Ratings. Last month, Moody’s upgraded the nation’s short-term foreign-currency bank deposits to investment grade from speculative grade.
D.K. Joshi, chief economist at ratings agency Crisil, says that India has only gradually increased the amount that foreigners can invest in the country, because the local markets aren’t developed enough to withstand a sharp and sudden withdrawal of those investments during global shocks.
“You don’t just open up the markets. In today’s environment, you know that short-term debt flows are destabilizing. From that perspective, [it’s better that] you follow a cautious and prudent approach,” he said.
Supply, demand and bubbles
Indeed, fund managers say that the supply of debt, rather than demand, is a constraint for foreign investments. Given the limited avenues for investment at present, large fund inflows could potentially create asset bubbles.
Aberdeen’s Akintewe said the good fiscal performance of a majority of Asian governments also limits the supply of debt — a financially strong nation doesn’t need to raise as much debt as a weak country.
“The importance of capital-market development is, of course, well understood among most regional policy makers. So there is a push to broaden the depth and liquidity of bond markets,” he said.
He cited the example of countries such as Singapore, which don’t need to raise debt but do so “in the spirit of capital-market development.”
Demetrios Efstathiou, head of fixed-income strategy for Central & Eastern Europe, Middle-East and Africa at the Royal Bank of Scotland, said that while there was a shift toward emerging markets debt “for sure,” there weren’t any signs of a bubble at present.
“Even though, overall, emerging markets have better fundamentals than developed markets, [signs of a bubble] are not currently reflected in foreign exchange or local bond yields,” he said.
One shining example of an emerging market that is benefiting from improving fundamentals is Indonesia, which is seeing strong foreign-fund interest after both Moody’s and Fitch recently upgraded the nation’s debt to investment grade.
Aberdeen’s Akintewe, however, said that while foreigners own about 30% of Indonesia’s tradable bond market, estimated at 730 trillion rupiah ($81.75 billion), the nation could adequately counter any major sell-off by foreigners in the event of a global shock.
The country’s policy makers, armed with accumulated cash balances and $110 billion in foreign-exchange reserves, were well equipped to protect themselves, he said.
He also said growing demand wasn’t likely to raise fears of a potential bubble.
“The transition of the global economy will result in [demand] being a phenomena that lasts for several decades,” Akintewe said.
