gW suka BANGET ketidakPASTIan

gW suka BANGET ketidakPASTIan

Minggu, 15 September 2013


per tgl 17 Mei 2013, jarak potential gain % antara YANG DIINVES SAAT krisis dan euforia MAKEN LEBAr seh : 

per tgl 7 Mei 2013: 

pada 28 Oktober 2008, gw inget, bahwa gw LANGSUNG PERGI KE salah satu kantor cabang bank untuk BELI reksa dana saham (termasuk BNP PARIBAS EKUITAS) dan memberi instruksi kepada relationship manager gw untuk MEMBELI terus menerus setiap hari kerja selama beberapa minggu, dan beberapa bulan kemudian  ... saat itu IHSG pada 1111, saat ini (07 Mei 2013) @ 5042 ... hmm, coba bandingkan potential gain % antara berinves PADA SAAT KONDISI NORMAL (atawa euforia; diberi warna biru), dan SAAT KRISIS (kuning)... sekira 10 kali lipat khan ya ... :)
... pertanyaan gw pada Relationship Manager saat krisis itu, APAKAH ADA ORANG LAEN YANG MASUK BELI REKSA DANA SAHAM saat ITU ... jawabannya lembut: TIDAK ADA ... well, cara KONTRARIAN ala gw emang LANGKA DI DUNIA INVESTASI BERISIKO TINGGI ini ya ... :)


... wow, gw maseh punya CATATAN jadul saat KRISIS IHSG 2008 ... simak BETAPA TINGGI kenaekan potential gain % SAAT KRISIS dan SAAT MULAI REBOUND dalam beberapa hari saja (yaitu saat gw mulai dan terus menerus MEMBELI / subscription reksa dana schroder dana prestasi plus ini secara dollar cost averaging) ... well, nostalgila lah ... ooops NO$TALG1A yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa ... :)

perbandingan tren HARGA SAHAM (dalam komposisi investasi RD SAHAM bnp paribas EKUITAS) dan NAB bnp paribas EKUITAS, sejak masa krisis 2008 s/d Juli 2013:
Schroder dana  prestasi sejak KRISIS RAKSASA 2007 s/d KRISIS EUROZONE 2011-2012 s/d KRISIS NEGARA BERKEMBANG 2013 : 
pada BNP PARIBAS EKUITAS per tgl 04 September 2013: 

IHSG Diperkirakan di Level 4.600 Akhir Tahun Ini

  • Penulis :
  • Sakina Rakhma Diah Setiawan
  • Senin, 9 September 2013 | 19:50 WIB
JAKARTA, - Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) diperkirakan bakal di level 4.600 padaakhir tahun ini, dengan asumsi bahwa pertumbuhan laba per saham (earning per share/EPS) sebesar 8 persen dan rasio harga saham terhadap laba per saham (price to earning ratio/PE) tidak mengalami penurunan.

Direktur Investasi PT CIMB Principal Asset Management Fajar Rachman Hidajat menyatakan, jika PE diasumsikan mengalami penurunan ke level rata-rata seperti pada 2006, maka target indeks adalah pada level 4.300. 

"Target indeks 4.600 dengan asumsi pertumbuhan EPS 8 persen dan PE tidakde-rating," katanya dalam acara Investor Gathering "Strategi Investasi dan Peluang Di Tengah Gejolak Pasar" di Jakarta, Senin (9/9/2013).

Dalam paparannya mengenai pasar domestik, Fajar mengungkapkan sejak 22 Mei 2012 hingga bulan lalu, IHSG telah terkoreksi 21,3 persen akibat aksi jual investor asing sebesar Rp 32 triliun.

Hal ini menyebabkan valuasi IHSG mencapai titik terendah selama 3 tahun terakhir, yakni di valuasi nilai buku (price tobok value/PBV) 2,5x. Di samping itu, pelemahan itu juga disebabkan oleh kaburnya dana asing akibat melemahnya data ekonomi domestik.

"Tapi, dibandingkan periode crash di tahun-tahun sebelumnya, kondisi Indonesia jauh lebih baik dari tahun 1997/98 maupun crash yang lain (2005-2011). Terutama dengan aliran investasi masuk ke sektor riil yang masih tinggi," kata Fajar. 

Untuk tahun 2014 mendatang, target indeks adalah 5.400 dengan asumsi PE 14,7 kali dan pertumbuhan EPS 17 persen.
Editor : Bambang Priyo Jatmiko

 Sept. 13, 2013, 4:30 p.m. EDT

Mutual funds erase financial crisis from history

Why five-year fund returns are about to more than double

By Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch 
When it comes to catastrophes and disasters, anniversaries typically bring up bad memories.
With mutual funds, key anniversaries erase them.
Thus, as investors mark the five-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers—the signature event of the financial crisis of 2008—mutual fund companies are watching as the passage of time removes all of that pain from five-year performance records. While the financial crisis actually sucked 50% of the value out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over an 18-month period from October 2007 through early March 2009, funds took the worst of it in the two months after the Sept. 15th collapse of Lehman.
Removing that experience from the five-year look-back creates a before-after picture that’s as startling as the sudden transformation of a 98-pound weakling into a pumped-up, sculpted contender for Mr. Universe.
For example, the average large-cap growth fund entered September with a five-year annualized return of 6.38%, according to Morningstar Inc. If the market simply stays flat and the average fund stands still to the end of the year, that five-year average will be 9.2% once September is wiped off the books, and will reach 15.16% by the end of the year.
Put another way, expecting a 0.0% return for the rest of the year is akin to simply shrinking the track record by four months, removing the first of the 60 months in the time frame.
When you take the fall of 2008 off the books, according to Lipper Inc., the cumulative return of the average large-cap core fund would go from 37.82% entering September to 94.14% by the end of the year. The typical financial-services sector fund, which now reports a total gain of 27.5% since August 2008, will see its five-year results shoot to roughly 106.5% by year’s end, simply by holding steady for through December.
5-year returns on mutual funds will more than double by year’s end
Because the financial crisis spared no sector or category from its misery, virtually every category is slated to see massive improvement by year’s end, barring another market catastrophe.
The two questions this sudden change brings are whether investors recognize that the performance-enhancing drug in five-year records was time, being used as a painkiller to get the worst of the crisis out of the five-year lens, and what fund companies will do with those suddenly sexy half-decade numbers.
“Equity funds are still bleeding assets from the 2008 crisis, so one would have to think fund sponsors will jump on the improvement in the five-year records and turn up the heat in saying how well they have done since the market stressed funds back then,” said Geoff Bobroff, an industry consultant based in East Greenwich, R.I. “They may push it more in the materials going to [advisers and brokers] than directly to the individual investor, but they have something to sell now and some companies definitely will sell it.”
The expectation that the push on five-year records will be made via advisers comes because some experts wonder if individual investors have gotten to a point where they don’t believe past-performance matters any more.
Industry observers have long pointed to studies showing how past performance is, at best, a flawed predictor of future results. The inherent ability to cherry-pick time frames to deliver good-looking results is a big reason why.
At the start of 2010, for example, the financial crisis was front-and-center in short-term track records, and trying to ease the pain by looking back 10 years wasn’t much help, because the decade included the bear market that occurred when the Internet bubble burst in 2000.
Now the 2008 catastrophe is about to be out of five-year records and the 10-year performance results have already dropped the bear market of 2000-2003.
“Funds, basically, are market-timing their records,” said David Trainer, president of New Constructs Inc., the Nashville-based research firm. “They’ll use their five-year record—or whatever record they think looks good to investors—when it suits them, and sweep it under the rug when it doesn’t. … Now they will say their five-year performance is good; we’ll see if people believe them and act on it.”
What may be standing in the way is investors’ pain reflex.
This is less about risk tolerance than about the memory of past injuries. Investors internalize losses, and the 50% drop of the financial crisis isn’t leaving their heads, even if it is leaving five-year histories; the pain feels like it was just yesterday, which is why so many investors have had a tough time getting all the way back into the equity market even as it rode a new bull market to record highs.

Investors have good reason to be skeptical, noted Trainer. If the average large-cap value fund is going to see its five-year annualized performance jump from 6.2% entering this month to 13.4% at the end of December (again, assuming 0.0% movement in the fund between now and year’s end), it’s only a mirage that makes it look like performance is twice as good.
“That change in what the five-year numbers look like is so big so fast, but it’s not like the funds actually got better overnight,” he said. “They just don’t have to look back on what was hurting them in that time frame any more. … It’s not like you have any reason to believe they will avoid whatever could hurt them next.”
That’s why it’s important that investors not only mark the anniversary of the financial crisis, but remember it. Having seen funds at their worst, investors can factor future market meltdowns into their planning; forgetting that pain—or ignoring it based on recent positives—is a good way to ensure that they will feel it again, the next time there’s a market crisis. 

4 komentar:

Anonim mengatakan...


Ekonomi Takserius mengatakan...

terima kasih untuk BULLISHnya ya ... ooops, bull dan TAHInya ... he3... IHSG MENCAPAI REKOR TERTINGGI neh pada saat ADA YANG TERIAK: BULLSHITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT ... he3 ... thankyou so much lah, yang penting gw HEPI yaaaaaaa

Anonim mengatakan...

Hey,knp anda tiba2 bullshit ? IHSG abv 5200 tp anda RUGI yah ? Makanya anda marah2 ? Come on man...BANGUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUN...buka MATAAAAAAA makan nasi pake jagung ! My RDS up to abv 20%

Ekonomi Takserius mengatakan...

well, dalam hidup nyata sehari-hari, situasi sebaik apa pun bisa bermakna berbeda, tergantung pemikiran yang bersangkutan itu sedang mengalami apa ... keep investing in a good perception and following the right way of investing, then we may have the best results ... renungkan, lakukan, dan nikmati :)