KEEP BUYING, jangka panjang LEBE BAGU$, pindah ke http://investasireksadanaindonesiagw.blogspot.com/ aka INVESTASI REKSA DANA INDONESIA gw
gW suka BANGET ketidakPASTIan
Senin, 03 Oktober 2011
bulan PEMBALIKAN ARAH, semogA
Why U.S. stock funds could see year-end rally
Debt woes plague economy and markets, but fourth quarter is often strong
By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — This was supposed to be another fruitful year for U.S. stocks. So far, not so good.
Now, after enduring a summer-long market drought and geopolitical wildfires, investors in equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds aren’t expecting much of an annual harvest, but they shouldn’t rule out a year-end rally.
Debt troubles from Athens to Washington preoccupied investors throughout the third quarter and gave U.S. stock funds their worst drubbing since the financial-market meltdown three years ago. Sporadic rallies provided a brief lift but only masked an overall pessimistic trend for stocks and stockholders alike.
The biggest weight on stock investors has been the European debt crisis. Europe’s financial meisters and ministers, with an assist from the U.S., are trying to orchestrate an “orderly” default for Greece. Their overarching goal: protect big European and U.S. banks from a knockout punch that could trigger another worldwide recession — that is, unless a recession is already here.
“What is a bad economy is about to get much worse,” said Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which at the end of September said the U.S. would be hit with another recession that would not spare other developed nations and emerging markets.
“We are seeing the weakness spread widely,” Achuthan said. “There’s a contagion…that’s not going to be snuffed out. The nature of a recession is not a statistic. It’s a vicious feedback loop. Sales fall, production falls, income falls and that depresses sales. We’re in that and it’s going to run its course.” Read more: Economy faces new recession.
That cycle may take awhile, given the massive levels of debt that governments, corporations and households around the developed world are being forced to whittle down. Against that backdrop, stock-market recoveries will be more fragile and easily derailed, recessions more frequent, and heightened volatility the rule rather than the exception.
Stock investing therefore will need to become more nimble and proactive, a far cry from the “set-it-and-forget-it,” buy-and-hold mantra that most individual investors who came of age in the past 30 years have been taught.
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“The next decade will likely be one where buy and hold will generally be a fairly poor option in developed markets,” Deutsche Bank analysts told clients in a report last month. “There will be large cyclical rallies punctuated by recessions and funding crises.
“We need at least a decade to make the adjustments in both asset prices and debt levels to return the normal rhythm of long-term returns,” the report noted. “Until then, expect a highly unstable, volatile and ultimately ‘Grey’ decade.” Read more: 5 money moves one debt-crisis expert is making now.
Fourth and goal
Still, at the moment the U.S. arguably is the cleanest dirty shirt in the world’s hamper, as the resurgent U.S. dollar attests. So some analysts are looking for U.S. stocks to finish the year on an upbeat note, at least compared with less-resilient areas of the world.
“The United States remains in somewhat better shape than Europe,” equity-market analysts at BlackRock Inc. noted in a late September research report. “On balance, we believe the economy will continue to ‘muddle through’ at a weak but still positive rate.”
Stock buyers should look for opportunities in technology, energy and other cyclical market sectors, BlackRock strategists said. They also favor health care, a sector whose constituents historically have exhibited strong pricing power in weak economic conditions.
The analysts added: “Companies that have the ability to raise dividends, buy back stock and make new investments are well-positioned.”
In that sense, stock funds and ETFs with shares of high-quality, cash-rich U.S. companies in their portfolio would be better able to weather headwinds.
Also working in stock funds’ favor is that fourth-quarter returns have been solidly positive on average for the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and its sectors since 1990, when S&P began keeping sector records. (So has the second quarter, just not as strongly.)
that fourth-quarter returns have been solidly positive on average for the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and its sectors since 1990, when S&P began keeping sector records
Over these past two decades, consumer discretionary, consumer staples and technology stocks have been the largest outperformers in the final three months of the year, topping the index’s 4.7% average gain for the period, according to S&P. Health care, industrials, materials and telecom also have tended toward above-market returns, while energy, financials and utilities finished below-average, but still in positive territory.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index is weak.
While U.S. stock traders obviously prefer to close the annual books on a high note, in more recent years the fourth quarter has disappointed — 2008, for example.
And even if the next three months do bring a respite for stock-fund shareholders, the relief may be short-lived.
“Don’t begin to think that green arrows will signal a change of long-term market direction,” cautioned Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ. “We still believe equities will again trend lower after the traditional year-end rally.”
Rotten to the quarter
Market players never like uncertainty, but they absolutely loathed the confusion and lack of confidence on display in the third quarter. The period’s large number of highly volatile trading days reflected this anxiety.
So did the quarter’s closing numbers. U.S. diversified stock funds tumbled more than 15% on average in the period, according to preliminary data from investment researcher Morningstar Inc.
The broad U.S. market benchmarks also fared poorly: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) lost 12.1% over the 13 weeks through Sept. 30, its worst showing since the the first quarter of 2009, while the S&P 500 (SNC:SPX) was hit with a 13.9% quarterly loss, including reinvested dividends — its biggest drop since the December 2008 quarter.
Every domestic stock fund category Morningstar follows lost ground. Reflecting the depth of the market rout and the surge of investor pessimism, even defensive fund sectors including consumer staples and utilities failed to finish in the black.
How to use options, ETFs and sector plays to get through Wall Street's most notorious month without seeing red.
International stock funds suffered even worse, with emerging markets investors getting a first-hand reminder of these countries’ inherent risk. Read more: Case for international stock funds gets tougher.
The stiff U.S. market losses since the end of June also erased investors’ hard-earned gains for the year. Domestic stock funds were down 10% over the first nine months of 2011 — only the utilities sector, with rich dividends to provide support, has managed to stay above water.
Health-care and consumer-staples funds and ETFs, which typically play defense, got tackled. The average health-care fund sank 14%, according to Morningstar; a representative ETF, Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NAR:XLV) , fell 10%. Actively run consumer-staples funds, meanwhile, gave up 9%; but an index-tracking ETF proxy for the group did considerably better: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NAR:XLP) lost just over 4%.
Gold and precious-metals funds also gave back ground, shaking shareholders who had enjoyed only an upward direction. Precious-metals funds dropped 6%, energy funds lost 22%, natural-resources funds shed 24% and financial-services sector portfolios lost 22%. Technology funds, meanwhile, lost 16%.
The biggest U.S.-stock mutual funds reflected the market’s unforgiving mood. American Funds Growth Fund of America (MFD:AGTHX) lost about 16%, according to fund tracker Lipper Inc. Meanwhile, Fidelity Contrafund (MFD:FCNTX) did notably better, down 11.6%, Vanguard 500 Index Fund (MFD:VFINX) fell 13.9%, and Dodge & Cox Stock Fund (MFD:DODGX) tumbled almost 19%.
So-called bear-market funds, which are designed to rise when stocks fall, did their job and posted a 15% average gain.
“The market is looking for a bottom and is volatile, and it will remain so,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. “Right now you’re better off on the side of caution. That’s why you see cash quite high among professional investors.”
Keeping the powder dry
Indeed, for many potential buyers nowadays it pays not to play. Investors have been raising cash in an attempt to keep powder dry, and this summer the already jammed sidelines became even more crowded.
More than $71 billion fled U.S. stock funds in the quarter through Sept. 21, with an exodus of $23 billion in the week of Aug. 10 alone, according to the Investment Company Institute, an industry trade group. About three times as much money poured out of domestic funds in the third quarter as in the previous quarter.
When money did go into stocks over the quarter, it was most often through hybrid or balanced funds that also invest in bonds. For others, pure bond funds were the only good option. As has been the case all year, long-term government bond funds proved especially lucrative. Read more: Why government bond funds surged in the third quarter.
“It’s going to be a couple of years before investors are net buyers of equity funds,” said Bob Carey, chief investment officer at First Trust Advisors L.P. “Investors want cash flow.”
Investors’ laser-like focus on stock dividends and bond income will dissipate once the market emerges from its slump, Carey added. “It’s not that different from the mid-1990s as we were coming out of the 1990-91 recession,” he pointed out. “Five years later everything with a dividend was considered passé.”
... well, SEKALE LAGE, sebagai perbandingan, di INDONESIA pun, SAHAM MENCETAK GAIN lage pada NOVEMBER s/d DESEMBER, dengan catatan: desember BULAN LIBURAN, jadi kenaekan akan TERBATAS:
jadi seperti yang gw selalu koar-koarkan, SEBAEKNYA ELO JANGAN KETINGGALAN KERETA, saat INVESTOR REKSA DANA SAHAM HARI-HARI INI MALAH MENGKOLEKSI unit2 tambahan secara terus menerus dan rutin, maka kemudian pada 2 bulan PEMBALIKAN ARAH ITU, mereka akan JUAL UNTUK MENIKMATI LIBURAN PANJANG :)